My annual NYFF main slate predictions will have an additional home on my Patreon from here on out, now with annotations; some of these will be more obvious picks than others, but worth making a comment for each of them. This is the first round, done as per usual after the Cannes jury awards announcements; the annotated version is after the clean version.

Virtual Lock
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)
La chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
Close Your Eyes (Víctor Erice)
Eureka (Lisandro Alonso)
Fallen Leaves (Aki Kaurismäki)
In Our Day (Hong Sang-soo)
in water (Hong Sang-soo)
May December (Todd Haynes)
Music (Angela Schanelec)
Youth (Wang Bing)

Strong Chance
The Delinquents (Rodrigo Moreno)
Here (Bas Devos)
Kidnapped (Marco Bellocchio)
Last Summer (Catherine Breillat)
Occupied City (Steve McQueen)
The Pot-au-feu (Trần Anh Hùng)
Samsara (Lois Patiño)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Moderate Possibility
About Dry Grasses (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
About Thirty (Martin Shanly)
Bad Living (João Canijo)
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Phạm Thiên Ân)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
Kubi (Kitano Takeshi)
Living Bad (João Canijo)
On the Adamant (Nicolas Philibert)
Only the River Flows (Wei Shujun)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Paul B. Preciado)
Perfect Days (Wim Wenders)
A Prince (Pierre Creton)
The Shadowless Tower (Zhang Lu)
Till the End of the Night (Christoph Hochhäusler)

Virtual Lock

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)
Triet managed to place previously with Sibyl despite its bafflingly tepid reception at Cannes 2019, so its better-received successor should have no problem, and the Palme (no winner has missed since 2015) is just a sweetener.

La chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
Every single one of Rohrwacher’s features have been in the Main Slate.

Close Your Eyes (Víctor Erice)
Surprisingly neither of Erice’s past two fiction features have placed in the Main Slate, but the triumphant return seems like a no-brainer.

Eureka (Lisandro Alonso)
Maybe a little quick to place this here, given that this doesn’t seem to necessarily provide the same lightning-bolt that Jauja did, but hard to imagine the Main Slate without it.

Fallen Leaves (Aki Kaurismäki)
Kaurismäki’s got a solid track record with NYFF and people are (almost certainly justifiably) loving this one out of Cannes.

In Our Day (Hong Sang-soo)
It’s Hong.

in water (Hong Sang-soo)
It’s Hong.

May December (Todd Haynes)
Unless this somehow gets released before NYFF then the Film Comment interview between Haynes and Dennis Lim confirms it.

Music (Angela Schanelec)
Maybe the highlight of Berlin, might be even more shocking than the Hongs if this didn’t place.

Youth (Wang Bing)
Wang has never been at NYFF before as far as I know (had forgotten Dead Souls New York-premiered at its own retrospective) but a strong new film plus a surprising Cannes competition berth feels like the right time.

Strong Chance

The Delinquents (Rodrigo Moreno)
The clear highlight of Un Certain Regard plus the El Pampero Cine connections all but guarantee this.

Here (Bas Devos)
This will 100% be in NYFF, the only question is if it’s Main Slate or Currents.

Kidnapped (Marco Bellocchio)
One of the riskier propositions on here, but both the personal documentary and the sprawling miniseries after The Traitor have been in a NYFF section so it stands to reason that it’ll make it.

Last Summer (Catherine Breillat)
Breillat’s been in NYFF enough (including with her last film a decade ago) that this seems likely, plus the Saïd Ben Saïd credit.

Occupied City (Steve McQueen)
McQueen’s salvation of the first COVID NYFF plus Lim’s liking for him make this a pretty safe bet, despite the running time; don’t think it’s unconventional enough for Currents.

The Pot-au-feu (Trần Anh Hùng)
Hùng actually hasn’t been in NYFF at all this century, but its Cannes reception has been warm enough, and the Best Director win almost certainly helps; Decision to Leave might not have made it in without that, and aside from the ineligible Annette every winner this past decade has been in the Main Slate.

Samsara (Lois Patiño)
See Here.

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Might seem crazy to not call this a lock (especially considering my friend and new committee member Justin Chang’s adoration of it) but Under the Skin missed in the mega year of 2013 and Glazer hasn’t appeared at all; will probably make it but not going to be totally shocked if it doesn’t, and the Grand Prix placement only muddies the waters (just one of the four (thanks to a bunch of egregious ties) has made it in, and Stars at Noon was touch and go).

Moderate Possibility

About Dry Grasses (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
Might be placing this too high, given neither Winter Sleep nor Wild Pear Tree made it, but I’m never inclined to count out a perennially monumental artist.

About Thirty (Martin Shanly)
Out-there Forum pick but there’s been a decent amount of chatter about Shanly.

Bad Living (João Canijo)
Would be very fun to see how NYFF would program it and its sibling if they both got in.

Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Phạm Thiên Ân)
One of the more loved films at Directors’ Fortnight, really could be in any NYFF section or ND/NF.

Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
Has enough time before its theatrical date to show, but now that Kent Jones is gone I’m not certain about how good Scorese’s chances are (not that he needs them).

Kubi (Kitano Takeshi)
Kitano hasn’t been at NYFF since the turn of the century, but might be part of the Cannes Premiere/late period wave.

Living Bad (João Canijo)
If both it and its sibling got in, would be very fun to see how NYFF would program them.

On the Adamant (Nicolas Philibert)
Philibert’s been at NYFF once before, and the somewhat lukewarmly-received 2022 Golden Bear winner Alcarràs managed to make it in (albeit in a weak year) so seems more likely than not that he’ll make it.

Only the River Flows (Wei Shujun)
Generated enough buzz at Un Certain Regard to merit inclusion.

Orlando, My Political Biography (Paul B. Preciado)
Might be more likely for Currents, but the Sideshow/Janus acquisition makes it quite probable that this will end up in the Main Slate.

Perfect Days (Wim Wenders)
Surprisingly well-received out of Cannes and while the Best Actor award might not be an enormous boost, the prospect of getting Wenders in the Main Slate for the first time in over a decade (and for the first time for a solo-directed fiction film since… Paris, Texas) might be sweet enough.

A Prince (Pierre Creton)
Had honestly never heard of Creton before this Cannes but the press has been strong for it and I know the Main Slate documentary section is looking to be bolstered.

The Shadowless Tower (Zhang Lu)
More a wishful thinking pick than anything else, but Zhang hasn’t had a competition berth anywhere for a while so his profile might be sufficiently high enough for this.

Till the End of the Night (Christoph Hochhäusler)
Got decent reviews out of Berlin and with Petzold’s Afire bafflingly out of contention thanks to a summer release and Graf’s Melting Ink documentary unlikely, the Berlin School/Dreileben slack has to be picked up, right?