New York Film Festival 2024 Predictions (Round 1)

Virtual Lock
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Anora (Sean Baker)
Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)

Strong Chance
The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)

Moderate Possibility
All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Elementary (Claire Simon)
Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)

Currents
The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)

Spotlight
Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)

Virtual Lock

All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Widely beloved Cannes prizewinner.

Anora (Sean Baker)
Actually had this in Strong Chance before the Palme d’or win, only because I wasn’t certain if it would also fall into Spotlight like Red Rocket, but the prize sealed it (no Palme has missed Main Slate since Dheepan).

Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Jia.

Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Golden Bear winner plus Diop.

Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Gomes + Cannes prize.

Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
Extremely strong notices out of Cannes, Sideshow/Janus acquisition, and Lim’s love for his work; Nobody’s Hero was likely an anomaly.

A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

Strong Chance

The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
Lim has always admired Minervini’s work and the fictional context plus the Film Comment interview make it more likely than not.

The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Dumont is always hard to parse, even with the Berlin win; he’s only made it three times and just once in the comedy period; this would be the first in the QuinCoin universe if it did make it.

Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
Berlin winner and general appreciation, though it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if this was in Currents.

The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
General Cronenberg love, and I’m certain that Crimes of the Future would have made it in if it wasn’t released during the summer.

Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)
Don’t know exactly how much of Assayas’s consistent inclusion was because of Kent Jones (I’m guessing Wasp Network wouldn’t have made it if not for his grand final year), but he’s certainly a beloved figure.

Moderate Possibility

All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Berlin Forum; Miyake was in ND/NF before.

Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Prix Un Certain Regard isn’t a sign by any means (Unclenching the Fists is the only one in the past ten years to make it) but it might help, along with Jia’s involvement.

Elementary (Claire Simon)
I Want to Talk About Duras was in Currents, and Our Body probably would have made it if its NYC premiere hadn’t been at Doc Fortnight.

Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Seems more conventional than Currents selection Mutzenbacher.

Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
General appreciation for Radwanski’s work and seems too conventional for Currents.

Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
Admittedly Rithy hasn’t had a film in NYFF since The Missing Picture, but it’s always possible.

No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Conceivably could be in any section, but considering every single aspect of its platform it seems unlikely to miss.

Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
The completely unexpected Master Gardener inclusion plus the more apparently adventurous nature of this seem possible.

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
Seemed to get strong praise from some critics.

The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
You Have to Come and See It was in Currents, and this seems more conventional with very positive reviews.

Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
The word was more muted than expected and wouldn’t be surprised if this missed or was in Spotlight.

An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Lou did previously have Saturday Fiction in the festival.

Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Not sure where to place this, but seems distinctive/strange enough.

Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Maybe more wishful than anything else but decent reviews Huppert is in there.

Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)
One of the more notable Berlin films.

Currents

The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
Berlin Forum, and Pebbles remains one of the most remembered recent Tiger Award winners.

The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Could be anywhere but Soda is well-known enough.

Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Thought about Main Slate but seems more likely to occupy the quasi-Main Slate opening spot like Will-o’-the-Wisp, Diamantino, and The Human Surge 3.

Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Berlin Encounters, and ND/NF alum.

Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
I’m especially bad at remembering Rotterdam films but this was the feature I recalled the best.

Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
Projections alum, might be in play for Main Slate.

You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)
Entirely uncertain about where to place this, but Piñeiro’s history means will be in NYFF somewhere.

Spotlight

Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
Could see these following the Directors’ Fortnight -> NYFF route that The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed and The Sweet East accomplished.

exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Will probably be in NYFF somewhere, and I get the sense that Spotlight can often be used for these sort of in between documentaries.

Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
Desplechin falls even moreso under the Kent Jones aegis, but the hybrid format sounds fascinating.

The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s been a while for Loznitsa, but it’s not out of the question.

It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)
All three of these will certainly be in NYFF, and I could see the Godardian nature of the former pairing well with the latter two; for some reason Spotlight seems more likely to me than the Currents format that Godard’s previous swan song used in conjunction with Wang Bing and Costa.

Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
Could see this missing NYFF entirely, but the grand folly nature of it weirdly makes me think of Maestro‘s Spotlight gala spot, so might as well guess it for this.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Was feeling more certain about this before it got an odd Special Prize at Cannes; Screen jury grid ratings aside the reactions seem more respectful than anything else, and Spotlight may fit it better than the Main Slate if it’s in NYFF at all.

Landscape Suicide [EVIL DOES NOT EXIST]

Courtesy of Sideshow/Janus Films.

Evil Does Not Exist/悪は存在しない/Aku wa Sonzai Shinai

Rating **** Masterpiece

Directed by Hamaguchi Ryusuke

Hamaguchi Ryusuke’s films have never lacked a prevailing sense of mystery. Since his festival breakthrough Happy Hour (2015), his scripts have accurately been characterized as teeming with layered characterizations and rich dialogue, following a strict adherence to a realist depiction of the world: even the potentially outré element in Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy‘s (2021) third segment, involving a worldwide computer virus, has the effect of further downplaying any overtly “unrealistic” element. But within those putative restrictions, the expansive nature of his scenarios lead into uncharted territory. This comes across most obviously in the great ruptures and leaps of logic: the wondrous epilogue to Drive My Car (2021), which Hamaguchi included out of a desire to not simply rest on a “perfect” ending; the central disappearance in Happy Hour, permanently altering the relationship dynamics of a previously stable quartet; the sly echoes between Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy‘s stories.

Evil Does Not Exist concludes with one such disruption, perhaps Hamaguchi’s most daring gambit yet, but from its opening moments it leans with supreme confidence into this ambiguous atmosphere. The first sequence—a continuous tracking shot trained upwards through a mountain forest in winter, interrupted by several cast and crew credit intertitles—initially presents a readily ascertainable filmmaking process before the experience of “simple” observation—guided by Ishibashi Eiko’s elegiac score—gradually turns the viewer’s mind towards all manner of possibilities of perspective and motion orientation. As I watched, the movement even seemed to suggest tree branches animated to slide up the screen, an alluring, intrusive unreality that spoke to the uncanniness of the normal. That the matter-of-fact following shot—a close-up frame between trees that a young girl steps into, eyes cast to the sky—feels at odds with the smooth, majestic-turned-disquieting procession of natural images beforehand only deepens the unsettling feeling.

Of course, part of Evil Does Not Exist‘s allure lies in the complete U-turn it would appear to present from Hamaguchi’s wholly unanticipated worldwide success with Drive My Car, still one of the most unanticipated (and deserving) instances of universal acclaim in recent memory. A 106-minute film that emerged out of a collaboration with Ishibashi—intended initially to serve as raw material for a medium-length visual accompaniment to a live performance—and starring crew member Omika Hitoshi as taciturn village handyman Takumi, it in many ways is the antithesis of the sprawling, dialogue-heavy, strictly professional nature of its predecessor.

But Hamaguchi, as much as any living filmmaker, is never content to simplify his proceedings, to—contrary to Drive My Car‘s signature image—simply follow a road down to its conclusion, both in the arc of his body of work thus far and within his individual films. It takes a full fifteen minutes before the “central” problem of Evil Does Not Exist—a planned glamping site running into the concerns of the neighboring village—introduces itself, in an offhand comment only truly elaborated upon another ten minutes later. Within that stretch of time, Hamaguchi casts his watchful eye on the details of nature, simultaneously taking in the forest, the trees, and the people that move through them.

It’s certainly telling that Hamaguchi’s signature “point-of-view” shots, wherein characters unexpectedly stare into the lens in close-up, are here typically construed as being from the vantage point of specific natural details, including a deer carcass and a patch of wild wasabi. As with the humanity that has taken up so much of his cinema, nature is not merely seen as an amorphous, all-expansive whole but instead an agglomeration of discrete beings, each with their own particular utility: wood to be used for Takumi’s own fireplace, spring water to provide for a specialty udon restaurant, stray bird feathers for a village elder’s harpsichord. In the moments before the “narrative” truly takes hold—made most clear in an unexpected dream on the part of Takumi’s daughter, which flashes back to images from her walk home with her father in a chronological disruption exactly when the film’s flow had seemed to be fully established—these inhabitants’ harmony with the world they walked through felt completely settled.

Evil Does Not Exist has already been lauded for its fifteen-minute meeting scene, an exemplary series of quiet but firm rebukes to two company representatives doubly out of their element: in an area of Japan they are completely unfamiliar with (despite the village being a few hours’ drive from Tokyo) and in their actual status as talent agency workers, contracted by the glamping company to pitch this far afield project. In Hamaguchi’s typically egalitarian approach, the establishment of the key village speakers creates an anticipation and investment in the specific concern each person will voice, in the particular manner they will couch an unmistakeable anger with the calamity that may soon be visited upon the place where they live. It is made clear that this is not merely a case of self-preservation: Takumi notes that the region was only settled after World War II, and that everyone in the village is an outsider. But within these parameters, the delicate balance already in place must be preserved.

But here, Hamaguchi chooses to reveal the delicate balance of his own film to be far different than might be expected. Evil Does Not Exist pivots to focus upon Takahashi (Kosaka Ryuji) and Mayuzumi (Shibutani Ayaka), the two company representatives, first as they express their misgivings in a Google Meets call in Tokyo and then as they travel back to the village, hoping to ask Takumi to personally aid with taking care of the glamping site. During their drive back, the conversation creates a genuine back-and-forth for the first time in the film, a constant volley of conversation as Takahashi and Mayuzumi discuss their work experiences and future plans, with the latter even making fun of the former when she spots a dating app notification on his phone. The change in tone is refreshing, but not as a respite per se: the scene on the whole continues with the same evenhandedness of execution as prior dialogue scenes. Instead, it feels like a further broadening of horizons, something that opens the possibilities of what this particular film can achieve.

It is here, then, where the ending fully comes into play. Without saying anything specific, it is best understood as a continuous movement, the primacy of nature so fully embodied in the opening sequences reasserting itself upon this new understanding of each of these characters. It begins with a truly stunning shot of Mayuzumi at Takumi’s cabin, watching the fog roll in as a broadcast plays on the community intercom, with the natural forces obscuring what had on the road seemed to be a crystalline image. The ultimate occurrences are desperately sad, but, per the title, they cannot be simply distilled down to a judgment according to human values. Like with Ishibashi’s varied score, part mournful strings and part muted electronics, Hamaguchi constantly searches for a new means of conveying an essential mystery of human behavior; here, he has found yet another realm to ponder.