Virtual Lock
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Anora (Sean Baker)
Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)

Strong Chance
The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)

Moderate Possibility
All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Elementary (Claire Simon)
Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)

Currents
The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)

Spotlight
Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)

Virtual Lock

All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Widely beloved Cannes prizewinner.

Anora (Sean Baker)
Actually had this in Strong Chance before the Palme d’or win, only because I wasn’t certain if it would also fall into Spotlight like Red Rocket, but the prize sealed it (no Palme has missed Main Slate since Dheepan).

Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Jia.

Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Golden Bear winner plus Diop.

Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Gomes + Cannes prize.

Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
Extremely strong notices out of Cannes, Sideshow/Janus acquisition, and Lim’s love for his work; Nobody’s Hero was likely an anomaly.

A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

Strong Chance

The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
Lim has always admired Minervini’s work and the fictional context plus the Film Comment interview make it more likely than not.

The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Dumont is always hard to parse, even with the Berlin win; he’s only made it three times and just once in the comedy period; this would be the first in the QuinCoin universe if it did make it.

Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
Berlin winner and general appreciation, though it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if this was in Currents.

The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
General Cronenberg love, and I’m certain that Crimes of the Future would have made it in if it wasn’t released during the summer.

Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)
Don’t know exactly how much of Assayas’s consistent inclusion was because of Kent Jones (I’m guessing Wasp Network wouldn’t have made it if not for his grand final year), but he’s certainly a beloved figure.

Moderate Possibility

All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Berlin Forum; Miyake was in ND/NF before.

Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Prix Un Certain Regard isn’t a sign by any means (Unclenching the Fists is the only one in the past ten years to make it) but it might help, along with Jia’s involvement.

Elementary (Claire Simon)
I Want to Talk About Duras was in Currents, and Our Body probably would have made it if its NYC premiere hadn’t been at Doc Fortnight.

Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Seems more conventional than Currents selection Mutzenbacher.

Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
General appreciation for Radwanski’s work and seems too conventional for Currents.

Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
Admittedly Rithy hasn’t had a film in NYFF since The Missing Picture, but it’s always possible.

No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Conceivably could be in any section, but considering every single aspect of its platform it seems unlikely to miss.

Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
The completely unexpected Master Gardener inclusion plus the more apparently adventurous nature of this seem possible.

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
Seemed to get strong praise from some critics.

The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
You Have to Come and See It was in Currents, and this seems more conventional with very positive reviews.

Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
The word was more muted than expected and wouldn’t be surprised if this missed or was in Spotlight.

An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Lou did previously have Saturday Fiction in the festival.

Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Not sure where to place this, but seems distinctive/strange enough.

Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Maybe more wishful than anything else but decent reviews Huppert is in there.

Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)
One of the more notable Berlin films.

Currents

The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
Berlin Forum, and Pebbles remains one of the most remembered recent Tiger Award winners.

The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Could be anywhere but Soda is well-known enough.

Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Thought about Main Slate but seems more likely to occupy the quasi-Main Slate opening spot like Will-o’-the-Wisp, Diamantino, and The Human Surge 3.

Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Berlin Encounters, and ND/NF alum.

Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
I’m especially bad at remembering Rotterdam films but this was the feature I recalled the best.

Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
Projections alum, might be in play for Main Slate.

You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)
Entirely uncertain about where to place this, but Piñeiro’s history means will be in NYFF somewhere.

Spotlight

Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
Could see these following the Directors’ Fortnight -> NYFF route that The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed and The Sweet East accomplished.

exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Will probably be in NYFF somewhere, and I get the sense that Spotlight can often be used for these sort of in between documentaries.

Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
Desplechin falls even moreso under the Kent Jones aegis, but the hybrid format sounds fascinating.

The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s been a while for Loznitsa, but it’s not out of the question.

It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)
All three of these will certainly be in NYFF, and I could see the Godardian nature of the former pairing well with the latter two; for some reason Spotlight seems more likely to me than the Currents format that Godard’s previous swan song used in conjunction with Wang Bing and Costa.

Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
Could see this missing NYFF entirely, but the grand folly nature of it weirdly makes me think of Maestro‘s Spotlight gala spot, so might as well guess it for this.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Was feeling more certain about this before it got an odd Special Prize at Cannes; Screen jury grid ratings aside the reactions seem more respectful than anything else, and Spotlight may fit it better than the Main Slate if it’s in NYFF at all.