New York Film Festival 2025 Predictions (Round 3)

Main Slate
*After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)
*Father Mother Sister Brother (Jim Jarmusch)
*Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)
Blue Moon (Richard Linklater)
The Blue Trail (Gabriel Mascaro)
Dracula (Radu Jude)
Drunken Noodles (Lucio Castro)
Duse (Pietro Marcello)
Enzo (Robin Campillo)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Mary Bronstein)
It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)
Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)
Kontinental ’25 (Radu Jude)
Landmarks (Lucrecia Martel)
The Love That Remains (Hlynur Pálmason)
Magellan (Lav Diaz)
The Mastermind (Kelly Reichardt)
Mirrors No. 3 (Christian Petzold)
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir)
A Poet (Simón Mesa Soto)
Resurrection (Bi Gan)
Romería (Carla Simón)
Rose of Nevada (Mark Jenkin)
The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonça Filho)
Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
Sirât (Óliver Laxe)
Sound of Falling (Mascha Schilinski)
Two Prosecutors (Sergei Loznitsa)
What Does That Nature Say to You (Hong Sang-soo)
Yes! (Nadav Lapid)
Young Mothers (Jean-Pierre & Luc Dardenne)

Currents
*Dry Leaf (Alexandre Koberidze)
After Dreaming (Christine Haroutounian)
The Currents (Milagros Mumenthaler)
Hair, Paper, Water (Nicolas Graux & Trương Minh Quý)
The Lake (Fabrice Aragno)
Mare’s Nest (Ben Rivers)
Phantoms of July (Julian Radlmaier)
Remake (Ross McElwee)
The Seasons (Maureen Fazendeiro)
Tales of the Wounded Land (Abbas Fahdel)
With Hasan in Gaza (Kamal Aljafari)

Spotlight
*Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie)
Back Home (Tsai Ming-liang)
Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)
Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)
Hamnet (Chloé Zhao)
Late Fame (Kent Jones)
Nouvelle Vague (Richard Linklater)
One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
The Souffler (Gastón Solnicki)

New York Film Festival 2025 Predictions (Round 2)

Virtual Lock
Dracula (Radu Jude)
It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)
Kontinental ’25 (Radu Jude)
The Mastermind (Kelly Reichardt)
Resurrection (Bi Gan)
The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonça Filho)
Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
Sirât (Óliver Laxe)
What Does That Nature Say to You (Hong Sang-soo)

Strong Chance
Blue Moon (Richard Linklater)
The Blue Trail (Gabriel Mascaro)
Duse (Pietro Marcello)
Father Mother Sister Brother (Jim Jarmusch)
Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach) [centerpiece]
Mirrors No. 3 (Christian Petzold)
Nuestra Tierra (Lucrecia Martel)
One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Romería (Carla Simón)
Sound of Falling (Mascha Schilinski)
Two Prosecutors (Sergei Loznitsa)
Yes! (Nadav Lapid)

Moderate Possibility
Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)
Drunken Noodles (Lucio Castro)
Enzo (Robin Campillo)
Franz (Agnieszka Holland)
Girl (Shu Qi)
Heads or Tails? (Alessio Rigo de Righi & Matteo Zoppis)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Mary Bronstein)
Living the Land (Huo Meng)
Love on Trial (Fukada Koji)
The Love That Remains (Hlynur Pálmason)
Magellan (Lav Diaz)
Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie) [opening night]
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
Nouvelle Vague (Richard Linklater)
The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir)
A Poet (Simón Mesa Soto)
Renoir (Hayakawa Chie)
Rose of Nevada (Mark Jenkin)
The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Kaouther Ben Hania)
The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)
Young Mothers (Jean-Pierre & Luc Dardenne)

Currents
The Currents (Milagros Mumenthaler)
Dry Leaf (Alexandre Koberidze) [gala]
Hair, Paper, Water (Nicolas Graux & Trương Minh Quý)
The Lake (Fabrice Aragno)
Mare’s Nest (Ben Rivers)
Phantoms of July (Julian Radlmaier)
The Seasons (Maureen Fazendeiro)
Tales of the Wounded Land (Abbas Fahdel)
With Hasan in Gaza (Kamal Aljafari)

Spotlight
Back Home (Tsai Ming-liang)
Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)
Hamnet (Chloé Zhao) [gala]
Late Fame (Kent Jones)
Remake (Ross McElwee)
The Souffler (Gastón Solnicki)

New

Dracula (Radu Jude)
Jude fiction film.

Duse (Pietro Marcello)
Lim is a great admirer of Marcello’s, and Scarlet made it in despite a relatively muted reception.

Father Mother Sister Brother (Jim Jarmusch)
Jarmusch’s NYFF attendance can be a bit inconsistent, but this hopefully seems like a return to form.

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)
Baumbach’s become a NYFF regular, especially in gala slots (including the divisive White Noise), so predicting this for Centerpiece or Closing Night seems like a safe bet.

Nuestra Tierra (Lucrecia Martel)
Have no idea what to expect from a Martel documentary, but the general adoration of her work makes it likely that this will be in either Main Slate or Spotlight.

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)
The inclusion of Poor Things as a non-gala selection in Main Slate meant that the committee’s love for Lanthimos was greater than I anticipated; I’m still not entirely convinced that his inclusions aren’t a case-by-case basis but it’s in the cards.

Franz (Agnieszka Holland)
Green Border was a semi-surprising Main Slate pick, and I don’t know how to factor in the TIFF world premiere.

Girl (Shu Qi)
The Venice competition berth for one of cinema’s greatest actor’s directorial debut seems like a vote of confidence.

Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie)/The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
Still not entirely sure how NYFF feels about the Safdies—Uncut Gems was notably a late addition to Spotlight, after the likes of Joker—but wouldn’t be shocked if Josh got the first Opening Night world premiere in a while, and Benny was also in the mix.

No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
Feel like Decision to Leave might not have made it into NYFF last time in a stronger premiere year/without the Cannes Best Director award, but he’s always a candidate.

A Poet (Simón Mesa Soto)
Included mostly because of the 1-2 Special acquisition, which signals at least a certain degree of confidence in the film’s merits.

Rose of Nevada (Mark Jenkin)
Enys Men was a slightly surprising choice, and this seems like a relatively more conventional film.

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Kaouther Ben Hania)
Four Daughters wasn’t picked and I truthfully have no idea how this especially sensitive and timely event will be tackled, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this was selected.

The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)
Suspended Time didn’t make it but I retain some hope for Assayas.

Dry Leaf (Alexandre Koberidze)
This will almost certainly be in the NYFF selection, but an over-three-hour film shot entirely on a Sony Ericsson seems more in the vein of past Currents gala film The Human Surge 3.

Hamnet (Chloé Zhao)
Assuming one of the other films I’ve anticipated for Main Slate doesn’t take the Spotlight gala spot, I think this would make sense, especially considering the very low profile it’s had thus far relative to the prominence of Nomadland‘s 2020 run.

New York Film Festival 2025 Predictions (Round 1)

Virtual Lock
It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)
Kontinental ’25 (Radu Jude)
The Mastermind (Kelly Reichardt)
Resurrection (Bi Gan)
The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonça Filho)
Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
Sirât (Óliver Laxe)
What Does That Nature Say to You (Hong Sang-soo)

Strong Chance
Blue Moon (Richard Linklater)
The Blue Trail (Gabriel Mascaro)
Mirrors No. 3 (Christian Petzold)
One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Romería (Carla Simón)
Sound of Falling (Mascha Schilinski)
Two Prosecutors (Sergei Loznitsa)
Yes! (Nadav Lapid)

Moderate Possibility
Drunken Noodles (Lucio Castro)
Enzo (Robin Campillo)
Heads or Tails? (Alessio Rigo de Righi & Matteo Zoppis)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Mary Bronstein)
Living the Land (Huo Meng)
Love on Trial (Fukada Koji)
The Love That Remains (Hlynur Pálmason)
Magellan (Lav Diaz)
Nouvelle Vague (Richard Linklater)
The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir)
Renoir (Hayakawa Chie)
Young Mothers (Jean-Pierre & Luc Dardenne)

Virtual Lock

It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)
Panahi.

Kontinental ’25 (Radu Jude)
Jude fiction film.

The Mastermind (Kelly Reichardt)
Reichardt.

Resurrection (Bi Gan)
Bi.

The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonça Filho)
Mendonça Filho.

Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
Trier.

Sirât (Óliver Laxe)
Laxe.

What Does That Nature Say to You (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

Strong Chance

Blue Moon (Richard Linklater)
I feel like one of the Linklater festival competition films will make it into Main Slate and the other could make it to MS, Spotlight, or miss entirely; though this one is much less buzzy and more modest, the reviews were more uniformly positive.

The Blue Trail (Gabriel Mascaro)
Lim loved Neon Bull + Berlin Grand Jury Prize.

Mirrors No. 3 (Christian Petzold)
Maybe should be a Virtual Lock and I’m sure Lim still wishes he could have programmed Afire, but the avowed modesty of this has me just a little less sure.

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The film opens on the same day as NYFF Opening Night and it’s admittedly been a long time since the festival premiered a film on the same day it opened; a special preview Spotlight selection à la Megalopolis last year is more likely if anything happens, but Lim’s greater love of Anderson just might win out.

Romería (Carla Simón)
Considering the variable inclusions of the Golden Bear in NYFF (even during the Chatrian tenure), there might be more enthusiasm for Simón than I realized, and Cannes received this warmly.

Sound of Falling (Mascha Schilinski)
A little hesitant on where to put this; it’s certainly a significant breakthrough film but I could see its unsparing approach rubbing the committee the wrong way; Jury Prize and a strong Justin Chang advocacy makes it much more likely than not though.

Two Prosecutors (Sergei Loznitsa)
Lim certainly likes Loznitsa and this is a well-received return to narrative for him; My Joy is his only Main Slate selection though.

Yes! (Nadav Lapid)
Lapid; unless hesitancy over political considerations takes precedence.

Moderate Possibility

Drunken Noodles (Lucio Castro)
End of the Century was beloved and this seemed to be the highlight of the ACID program, though it would be the first Main Slate entry from there in at minimum a very long time, if not ever.

Enzo (Robin Campillo)
Relatively well-received, a nice tribute to Cantet, and Red Island was an outlier on all counts; 120 BPM might have been a specific alignment of circumstances though.

Heads or Tails? (Alessio Rigo de Righi & Matteo Zoppis)
The Tale of King Crab was in Currents and this seems to be bigger in scale.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Mary Bronstein)
Still not sure if A24 plans to distribute this before the fall, but this was among the most well-received films of the early year and a long-awaited second film.

Living the Land (Huo Meng)
Berlin Best Director winner, though I don’t know much else about it.

Love on Trial (Fukada Koji)
Despite Venice competition title Love Life missing, I still think it’s possible that he could return to NYFF.

The Love That Remains (Hlynur Pálmason)
Strong reviews, general bafflement over its absence from Cannes Competition, and seems to be a shift away from the more ostentatious tone of Godland.

Magellan (Lav Diaz)
Norte, the End of History was his only NYFF entry and this happens to be his first(?) color film since then; the Albert Serra connection and relative cohesion of this might be an appealing occasion for a return.

Nouvelle Vague (Richard Linklater)
This is the less likely of the two Linklaters but it still has a considerable number of defenders (including Justin Chang) and I think it’ll find a place somewhere.

The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir)
The most beloved of the early-year documentaries, aesthetically inventive, and it hasn’t received a New York premiere yet; David Osit’s Predators is a remote possibility as well.

Renoir (Hayakawa Chie)
Was received modestly but strangely feels a little more probable in its references to Japanese cinema/Somai Shinji than something like Hafsia Herzi’s The Little Sister, Cannes Best Actress award notwithstanding.

Young Mothers (Jean-Pierre & Luc Dardenne)
Seems to have been more warmly received than most other recent Dardennes films, though even the Best Screenplay prize is no guarantee.

New York Film Festival 2024 Predictions (Round 3)

Main Slate
*Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross)
*The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar)
*Blitz (Steve McQueen)
Afternoons of Solitude (Albert Serra)
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Anora (Sean Baker)
April (Dea Kulumbegashvili)
Black Dog (Guan Hu)
By the River (Hong Sang-soo)
Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Dahomey (Mati Diop)
The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
L’Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Harvest (Athina Rachel Tsangari)
Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
Pavements (Alex Ross Perry)
Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
Serpent’s Path (Kurosawa Kiyoshi)
The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
The Sparrow in the Chimney (Ramon Zürcher)
Stranger Eyes (Yeo Siew Hua)
Three Friends (Emmanuel Mouret)
A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)
Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Youth (Hard Times) (Wang Bing)
Youth (Homecoming) (Wang Bing)

Currents
*Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau)
The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
Bluish (Lilith Kraxner & Milena Czernovsky)
Bogancloch (Ben Rivers)
The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Familiar Touch (Sarah Friedland)
Fire of Wind (Marta Mateus)
Happyend (Sora Neo)
Invention (Courtney Stephens)
Lázaro de noche (Nicolás Pereda)
Monólogo Colectivo (Jessica Sarah Rinland)
Normandie (Vadim Kostrov)
Room of Shadows (Camilo Restrepo)
7 Walks With Mark Brown (Pierre Creton & Vincent Barré)
Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)

Spotlight
*Queer (Luca Guadagnino)
Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
Eight Postcards From Utopia (Radu Jude & Christian Ferencz-Flatz)
The End (Joshua Oppenheimer)
exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan & Galen Johnson)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)
Sleep #2 (Radu Jude)
Things We Said Today (Andrei Ujică)

New York Film Festival 2024 Predictions (Round 2)

Virtual Lock
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Anora (Sean Baker)
By the River (Hong Sang-soo)
Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)
Youth (Hard Times) (Wang Bing)

Strong Chance
Afternoons of Solitude (Albert Serra)
The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
L’Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
The Sparrow in the Chimney (Ramon Zürcher)
Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)

Moderate Possibility
Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Cent mille milliards (Virgil Vernier)
Death Will Come (Christoph Hochhäusler)
Elementary (Claire Simon)
Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)

Currents
The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
Bluish (Lilith Kraxner & Milena Czernovsky)
Bogancloch (Ben Rivers)
The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Fire of Wind (Marta Mateus)
Invention (Courtney Stephens)
Lázaro de noche (Nicolás Pereda)
Monólogo Colectivo (Jessica Sarah Rinland)
Normandie (Vadim Kostrov)
Room of Shadows (Camilo Restrepo)
7 Walks With Mark Brown (Pierre Creton & Vincent Barré)
Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)

Spotlight
Blitz (Steve McQueen) [gala]
Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
Eight Postcards From Utopia (Radu Jude & Christian Ferencz-Flatz)
exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)
Sleep #2 (Radu Jude)

New

By the River (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

Youth (Hard Times) (Wang Bing)
Might be placing this too highly considering the Locarno premiere vs. the Cannes competition berth of its predecessor, but if the reception is even nearly as positive then it should make it to the Main Slate easily.

Afternoons of Solitude (Albert Serra)
Not sure exactly what a Serra documentary will look like but the general embrace in the Lim era of fiction feature auteurs’ documentary efforts (Haynes, Mendonça Filho) make it a likely inclusion.

The Sparrow in the Chimney (Ramon Zürcher)
Might even have this too low, considering this will be yet another step up in ambition from the Zürchers’ previous film.

Cent mille milliards (Virgil Vernier)
Vernier has been around a while and seems to have a pretty strong base of support.

Death Will Come (Christoph Hochhäusler)
Probably less likely considering his previous Berlin award-winning film didn’t make it in but it’s possible.

Bluish (Lilith Kraxner & Milena Czernovsky)
FIDMarseille Grand Prix winner.

Bogancloch (Ben Rivers)
Rivers.

Fire of Wind (Marta Mateus)
Invention (Courtney Stephens)
Lázaro de noche (Nicolás Pereda)
Monólogo Colectivo (Jessica Sarah Rinland)
Room of Shadows (Camilo Restrepo)
7 Walks With Mark Brown (Pierre Creton & Vincent Barré)
Lots of Projections/Currents alumni, plus Rinland in Art of the Real.

Normandie (Vadim Kostrov)
Kostrov’s been around a “while” and a FIDMarseille berth seems as good an opportunity as any.

Blitz (Steve McQueen)
McQueen; purely speculative section placement and gala assignment but could easily see it in Main Slate, even as one of the galas there.

Eight Postcards From Utopia (Radu Jude & Christian Ferencz-Flatz)
Sleep #2 (Radu Jude)
Jude; both seem at first glance perhaps too small for Main Slate but could be mistaken.

Removed

All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Japan Cuts.

New York Film Festival 2024 Predictions (Round 1)

Virtual Lock
All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Anora (Sean Baker)
Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)

Strong Chance
The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)

Moderate Possibility
All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Elementary (Claire Simon)
Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)

Currents
The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)

Spotlight
Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)

Virtual Lock

All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia)
Widely beloved Cannes prizewinner.

Anora (Sean Baker)
Actually had this in Strong Chance before the Palme d’or win, only because I wasn’t certain if it would also fall into Spotlight like Red Rocket, but the prize sealed it (no Palme has missed Main Slate since Dheepan).

Caught by the Tides (Jia Zhangke)
Jia.

Dahomey (Mati Diop)
Golden Bear winner plus Diop.

Grand Tour (Miguel Gomes)
Gomes + Cannes prize.

Misericordia (Alain Guiraudie)
Extremely strong notices out of Cannes, Sideshow/Janus acquisition, and Lim’s love for his work; Nobody’s Hero was likely an anomaly.

A Traveler’s Needs (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

Strong Chance

The Damned (Roberto Minervini)
Lim has always admired Minervini’s work and the fictional context plus the Film Comment interview make it more likely than not.

The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Dumont is always hard to parse, even with the Berlin win; he’s only made it three times and just once in the comedy period; this would be the first in the QuinCoin universe if it did make it.

Pepe (Nelson Carlo de los Santos Arias)
Berlin winner and general appreciation, though it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if this was in Currents.

The Shrouds (David Cronenberg)
General Cronenberg love, and I’m certain that Crimes of the Future would have made it in if it wasn’t released during the summer.

Suspended Time (Olivier Assayas)
Don’t know exactly how much of Assayas’s consistent inclusion was because of Kent Jones (I’m guessing Wasp Network wouldn’t have made it if not for his grand final year), but he’s certainly a beloved figure.

Moderate Possibility

All the Long Nights (Miyake Sho)
Berlin Forum; Miyake was in ND/NF before.

Black Dog (Guan Hu)
Prix Un Certain Regard isn’t a sign by any means (Unclenching the Fists is the only one in the past ten years to make it) but it might help, along with Jia’s involvement.

Elementary (Claire Simon)
I Want to Talk About Duras was in Currents, and Our Body probably would have made it if its NYC premiere hadn’t been at Doc Fortnight.

Favoriten (Ruth Beckermann)
Seems more conventional than Currents selection Mutzenbacher.

Matt and Mara (Kazik Radwanski)
General appreciation for Radwanski’s work and seems too conventional for Currents.

Meeting With Pol Pot (Panh Rithy)
Admittedly Rithy hasn’t had a film in NYFF since The Missing Picture, but it’s always possible.

No Other Land (Basel Adra & Hamdan Ballal & Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Conceivably could be in any section, but considering every single aspect of its platform it seems unlikely to miss.

Oh, Canada (Paul Schrader)
The completely unexpected Master Gardener inclusion plus the more apparently adventurous nature of this seem possible.

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (Rungano Nyoni)
Seemed to get strong praise from some critics.

The Other Way Around (Jonás Trueba)
You Have to Come and See It was in Currents, and this seems more conventional with very positive reviews.

Rumours (Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson & Galen Johnson)
The word was more muted than expected and wouldn’t be surprised if this missed or was in Spotlight.

An Unfinished Film (Lou Ye)
Lou did previously have Saturday Fiction in the festival.

Universal Language (Matthew Rankin)
Not sure where to place this, but seems distinctive/strange enough.

Visiting Hours (Patricia Mazuy)
Maybe more wishful than anything else but decent reviews Huppert is in there.

Who by Fire (Philippe Lesage)
One of the more notable Berlin films.

Currents

The Adamant Girl (PS Vinothraj)
Berlin Forum, and Pebbles remains one of the most remembered recent Tiger Award winners.

The Cats of Gokogu Shrine (Soda Kazuhiro)
Could be anywhere but Soda is well-known enough.

Direct Action (Ben Russell & Guillaume Cailleau) [opening night]
Thought about Main Slate but seems more likely to occupy the quasi-Main Slate opening spot like Will-o’-the-Wisp, Diamantino, and The Human Surge 3.

Sleep With Your Eyes Open (Nele Wohlatz)
Berlin Encounters, and ND/NF alum.

Under a Blue Sun (Daniel Mann)
I’m especially bad at remembering Rotterdam films but this was the feature I recalled the best.

Viet and Nam (Trương Minh Quý)
Projections alum, might be in play for Main Slate.

You Burn Me (Matías Piñeiro)
Entirely uncertain about where to place this, but Piñeiro’s history means will be in NYFF somewhere.

Spotlight

Christmas Eve in Miller’s Point (Tyler Taormina)
Eephus (Carson Lund)
Could see these following the Directors’ Fortnight -> NYFF route that The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed and The Sweet East accomplished.

exergue – on documenta 14 (Dimitris Athiridis)
Will probably be in NYFF somewhere, and I get the sense that Spotlight can often be used for these sort of in between documentaries.

Filmlovers! (Arnaud Desplechin)
Desplechin falls even moreso under the Kent Jones aegis, but the hybrid format sounds fascinating.

The Invasion (Sergei Loznitsa)
It’s been a while for Loznitsa, but it’s not out of the question.

It’s Not Me (Leos Carax)
Scénarios/Exposé du film annonce du film “Scénario” (Jean-Luc Godard)
All three of these will certainly be in NYFF, and I could see the Godardian nature of the former pairing well with the latter two; for some reason Spotlight seems more likely to me than the Currents format that Godard’s previous swan song used in conjunction with Wang Bing and Costa.

Megalopolis (Francis Ford Coppola) [gala]
Could see this missing NYFF entirely, but the grand folly nature of it weirdly makes me think of Maestro‘s Spotlight gala spot, so might as well guess it for this.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
Was feeling more certain about this before it got an odd Special Prize at Cannes; Screen jury grid ratings aside the reactions seem more respectful than anything else, and Spotlight may fit it better than the Main Slate if it’s in NYFF at all.

New York Film Festival 2023 Main Slate Predictions (Round 2)

Virtual Lock
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)
La chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
Close Your Eyes (Víctor Erice)
Do Not Expect Too Much of the End of the World (Radu Jude)
Eureka (Lisandro Alonso)
Fallen Leaves (Aki Kaurismäki)
In Our Day (Hong Sang-soo)
in water (Hong Sang-soo)
May December (Todd Haynes)
Music (Angela Schanelec)
Youth (Wang Bing)

Strong Chance
All Ears (Liu Jiayin)
The Beast (Bertrand Bonello)
The Delinquents (Rodrigo Moreno)
Here (Bas Devos)
How Do You Live? (Miyazaki Hayao)
The Human Surge 3 (Eduardo Williams)
Kidnapped (Marco Bellocchio)
Last Summer (Catherine Breillat)
MMXX (Cristi Puiu)
Occupied City (Steve McQueen)
The Pot-au-feu (Trần Anh Hùng)
The Practice (Martín Rejtman)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Moderate Possibility
About Dry Grasses (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
About Thirty (Martin Shanly)
Bad Living (João Canijo)
The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed (Joanna Arnow)
Ferrari (Michael Mann)
Hello Language (Paul Vecchiali)
The Holdovers (Alexander Payne)
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Phạm Thiên Ân)
The Island (Damien Manivel)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
Kubi (Kitano Takeshi)
Living Bad (João Canijo)
Obscure Night: Goodbye Here, Anywhere (Sylvain George)
On the Adamant (Nicolas Philibert)
Only the River Flows (Wei Shujun)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Paul B. Preciado)
Perfect Days (Wim Wenders)
A Prince (Pierre Creton)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Red Island (Robin Campillo)
Samsara (Lois Patiño)
The Shadowless Tower (Zhang Lu)
Till the End of the Night (Christoph Hochhäusler)

New

Do Not Expect Too Much of the End of the World (Radu Jude)
Might even be placing this too high, but I know Lim adores Jude’s films and this seems to continue in the out-there vein of Bad Luck Banging.

All Ears (Liu Jiayin)
Completely forgot this was this year; I know that Lim adores the Oxhide films so despite the low-profile of its Shanghai premiere in the West, I think it’s much more likely as long as it’s even half as strong as Liu’s first films.

The Beast (Bertrand Bonello)
This is only here because I’m not sure if it’s actually premiering this year; if it is, then it’s absolutely going to be in the Main Slate.

How Do You Live? (Miyazaki Hayao)
Can’t believe I forgot about this while making my initial list, The Wind Rises played in 2013 and given the lack of information of North American distribution, NYFF seems like a great first stop for Miyazaki.

The Human Surge 3 (Eduardo Williams)
There is almost zero chance that this won’t be at NYFF, and it seems like the right (bewildering) time for Williams to join the Main Slate.

MMXX (Cristi Puiu)
One of the surprise announcements at San Sebastían, Puiu certainly has a stellar presence at NYFF, so as long as this isn’t overly minor it almost certainly should make it.

The Practice (Martín Rejtman)
The other surprise at San Sebastían; I actually don’t know what Lim and company think about Rejtman, but his Hongian aspects and past entry with Two Shots Fired back in 2014 make it a good probable fit.

The Empire (Bruno Dumont)
Same story as Bonello only it’s a little less of a sure thing.

The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed (Joanna Arnow)
Still not entirely convinced that this will break the New York independent film “curse” (Graham Swon himself also has a film this year, which has even less of a chance) but enough people mentioned it to me in response to the first round and the entirely unexpected Magnolia distribution make it more likely than any other so far.

Ferrari (Michael Mann)
Mann has somehow never been in the main slate; Lim doesn’t seem to be a huge fan, but with a Chrismastime release, the runway is clear (wrong metaphor, sorry) for a nice gala spot, if not Opening Night since it’s likely going to Venice.

Hello Language (Paul Vecchiali)
A little bit of a Hail Mary; none of the Diagonale films have ever made it to the main slate, but the well-received run of the Simone Barbès restoration, this being Vecchiali’s last film, and the seeming fact that it’s an homage to Godard make this perhaps the inclusion I’m most hoping for (in vain or not).

The Island (Damien Manivel)
Obscure Night, Goodbye Here, Anywhere (Sylvain George)
These two are maybe oddball choices that probably won’t go anywhere, but both are very different French filmmakers that have their own small reputation without truly breaking through, not totally out of the question especially as Lim takes full control.

Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
The only time Coppola the Younger made it to the main slate was with her first potentially revisionist biopic Marie Antoinette, so it seems only fitting.

Red Island (Robin Campillo)
Something of an afterthought, and since this didn’t receive any coverage whatsoever due to not making Cannes Competition or Directors’ Fortnight (as per the new leadership’s edict) I really have no way to gauge, but Campillo is a well-regarded-enough director that it’s not an unlikely inclusion.

Changes

Samsara (Lois Patiño)
I was fortunate enough to get a chance to see this and it is great, but Currents seems like a more likely place for this, still not ruling it out for the main slate though.

New York Film Festival 2023 Main Slate Predictions (Round 1)

My annual NYFF main slate predictions will have an additional home on my Patreon from here on out, now with annotations; some of these will be more obvious picks than others, but worth making a comment for each of them. This is the first round, done as per usual after the Cannes jury awards announcements; the annotated version is after the clean version.

Virtual Lock
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)
La chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
Close Your Eyes (Víctor Erice)
Eureka (Lisandro Alonso)
Fallen Leaves (Aki Kaurismäki)
In Our Day (Hong Sang-soo)
in water (Hong Sang-soo)
May December (Todd Haynes)
Music (Angela Schanelec)
Youth (Wang Bing)

Strong Chance
The Delinquents (Rodrigo Moreno)
Here (Bas Devos)
Kidnapped (Marco Bellocchio)
Last Summer (Catherine Breillat)
Occupied City (Steve McQueen)
The Pot-au-feu (Trần Anh Hùng)
Samsara (Lois Patiño)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Moderate Possibility
About Dry Grasses (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
About Thirty (Martin Shanly)
Bad Living (João Canijo)
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Phạm Thiên Ân)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
Kubi (Kitano Takeshi)
Living Bad (João Canijo)
On the Adamant (Nicolas Philibert)
Only the River Flows (Wei Shujun)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Paul B. Preciado)
Perfect Days (Wim Wenders)
A Prince (Pierre Creton)
The Shadowless Tower (Zhang Lu)
Till the End of the Night (Christoph Hochhäusler)

Virtual Lock

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)
Triet managed to place previously with Sibyl despite its bafflingly tepid reception at Cannes 2019, so its better-received successor should have no problem, and the Palme (no winner has missed since 2015) is just a sweetener.

La chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
Every single one of Rohrwacher’s features have been in the Main Slate.

Close Your Eyes (Víctor Erice)
Surprisingly neither of Erice’s past two fiction features have placed in the Main Slate, but the triumphant return seems like a no-brainer.

Eureka (Lisandro Alonso)
Maybe a little quick to place this here, given that this doesn’t seem to necessarily provide the same lightning-bolt that Jauja did, but hard to imagine the Main Slate without it.

Fallen Leaves (Aki Kaurismäki)
Kaurismäki’s got a solid track record with NYFF and people are (almost certainly justifiably) loving this one out of Cannes.

In Our Day (Hong Sang-soo)
It’s Hong.

in water (Hong Sang-soo)
It’s Hong.

May December (Todd Haynes)
Unless this somehow gets released before NYFF then the Film Comment interview between Haynes and Dennis Lim confirms it.

Music (Angela Schanelec)
Maybe the highlight of Berlin, might be even more shocking than the Hongs if this didn’t place.

Youth (Wang Bing)
Wang has never been at NYFF before as far as I know (had forgotten Dead Souls New York-premiered at its own retrospective) but a strong new film plus a surprising Cannes competition berth feels like the right time.

Strong Chance

The Delinquents (Rodrigo Moreno)
The clear highlight of Un Certain Regard plus the El Pampero Cine connections all but guarantee this.

Here (Bas Devos)
This will 100% be in NYFF, the only question is if it’s Main Slate or Currents.

Kidnapped (Marco Bellocchio)
One of the riskier propositions on here, but both the personal documentary and the sprawling miniseries after The Traitor have been in a NYFF section so it stands to reason that it’ll make it.

Last Summer (Catherine Breillat)
Breillat’s been in NYFF enough (including with her last film a decade ago) that this seems likely, plus the Saïd Ben Saïd credit.

Occupied City (Steve McQueen)
McQueen’s salvation of the first COVID NYFF plus Lim’s liking for him make this a pretty safe bet, despite the running time; don’t think it’s unconventional enough for Currents.

The Pot-au-feu (Trần Anh Hùng)
Hùng actually hasn’t been in NYFF at all this century, but its Cannes reception has been warm enough, and the Best Director win almost certainly helps; Decision to Leave might not have made it in without that, and aside from the ineligible Annette every winner this past decade has been in the Main Slate.

Samsara (Lois Patiño)
See Here.

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Might seem crazy to not call this a lock (especially considering my friend and new committee member Justin Chang’s adoration of it) but Under the Skin missed in the mega year of 2013 and Glazer hasn’t appeared at all; will probably make it but not going to be totally shocked if it doesn’t, and the Grand Prix placement only muddies the waters (just one of the four (thanks to a bunch of egregious ties) has made it in, and Stars at Noon was touch and go).

Moderate Possibility

About Dry Grasses (Nuri Bilge Ceylan)
Might be placing this too high, given neither Winter Sleep nor Wild Pear Tree made it, but I’m never inclined to count out a perennially monumental artist.

About Thirty (Martin Shanly)
Out-there Forum pick but there’s been a decent amount of chatter about Shanly.

Bad Living (João Canijo)
Would be very fun to see how NYFF would program it and its sibling if they both got in.

Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Phạm Thiên Ân)
One of the more loved films at Directors’ Fortnight, really could be in any NYFF section or ND/NF.

Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
Has enough time before its theatrical date to show, but now that Kent Jones is gone I’m not certain about how good Scorese’s chances are (not that he needs them).

Kubi (Kitano Takeshi)
Kitano hasn’t been at NYFF since the turn of the century, but might be part of the Cannes Premiere/late period wave.

Living Bad (João Canijo)
If both it and its sibling got in, would be very fun to see how NYFF would program them.

On the Adamant (Nicolas Philibert)
Philibert’s been at NYFF once before, and the somewhat lukewarmly-received 2022 Golden Bear winner Alcarràs managed to make it in (albeit in a weak year) so seems more likely than not that he’ll make it.

Only the River Flows (Wei Shujun)
Generated enough buzz at Un Certain Regard to merit inclusion.

Orlando, My Political Biography (Paul B. Preciado)
Might be more likely for Currents, but the Sideshow/Janus acquisition makes it quite probable that this will end up in the Main Slate.

Perfect Days (Wim Wenders)
Surprisingly well-received out of Cannes and while the Best Actor award might not be an enormous boost, the prospect of getting Wenders in the Main Slate for the first time in over a decade (and for the first time for a solo-directed fiction film since… Paris, Texas) might be sweet enough.

A Prince (Pierre Creton)
Had honestly never heard of Creton before this Cannes but the press has been strong for it and I know the Main Slate documentary section is looking to be bolstered.

The Shadowless Tower (Zhang Lu)
More a wishful thinking pick than anything else, but Zhang hasn’t had a competition berth anywhere for a while so his profile might be sufficiently high enough for this.

Till the End of the Night (Christoph Hochhäusler)
Got decent reviews out of Berlin and with Petzold’s Afire bafflingly out of contention thanks to a summer release and Graf’s Melting Ink documentary unlikely, the Berlin School/Dreileben slack has to be picked up, right?