New York Film Festival 2026 Predictions (Round 1)

Virtual Lock
All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi Ryusuke)
Dao (Alain Gomis)
The Day She Returns (Hong Sang-soo)
The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)
The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)
My Wife Cries (Angela Schanelec)
Paper Tiger (James Gray)
The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Strong Chance
Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
Everything Else Is Noise (Nicolás Pereda)
Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)
Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)
The Man I Love (Ira Sachs)
A Man of His Time (Emmanuel Marre)
9 Temples to Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)
Once Upon a Time in Harlem (William & David Greaves)
Queen at Sea (Lance Hammer)
Red Rocks (Bruno Dumont)

Moderate Possibility
The Beloved (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
Clarissa (Arie & Chuko Esiri)
Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)
Everytime (Sandra Wollner)
La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)
Hope (Na Hong-jin)
I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)
Josephine (Beth de Araújo)
The Loneliest Man in Town (Tizza Covi & Rainer Frimmel)
Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
Nagi Notes (Fukada Koji)
La perra (Dominga Sotomayor)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Thanks for Coming (Alain Cavalier)

Currents
Eden (James Benning)
Foreign Travel (Ted Fendt)
London (Sebastian Brameshuber)

Spotlight
The History of Concrete (John Wilson)

Virtual Lock

All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi Ryusuke)
Hamaguchi.

Dao (Alain Gomis)
Dennis Lim said on Instagram that this was surely one of the films of the year.

The Day She Returns (Hong Sang-soo)
Hong.

The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)
Jude fiction feature.

The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
Grisebach.

La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)
Alonso.

My Wife Cries (Angela Schanelec)
Schanelec.

Paper Tiger (James Gray)
Gray.

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
Lim spoke extremely highly of this on the Film Comment Podcast, and it was a clear highlight of the Cannes competition for virtually everyone who liked it.

Strong Chance

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
Almodóvar hasn’t not made the Main Slate in over 30 years (aside from the ineligible I’m So Excited!), though this one seems minor enough that I have just the hint of a doubt.

Everything Else Is Noise (Nicolás Pereda)
This will certainly be at NYFF, though it’s a coin flip between here and Currents (whether as the Centerpiece or otherwise).

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)
Generally quite liked out of Cannes and Cold War was a past selection.

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)
Mungiu’s made every NYFF since 4 Months and no Palme d’or winner has missed since Dheepan, though the sharp divisiveness of this gives me some doubt.

The Man I Love (Ira Sachs)
Might be overrating its chances but seems like a logical next step from Peter Hujar’s Day.

9 Temples to Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)
Could easily see this going to Currents or ND/NF, but one of the slow cinema banner carriers at Cannes this year, and Lim liked it a good deal.

A Man of His Time (Emmanuel Marre)
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Cannes competition, and the Film Comment Podcast made it sound like a Pietro Marcello film or something.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (William & David Greaves)
One of the most beloved films of the year; fairly sure this will be at NYFF, either here or in Spotlight.

Queen at Sea (Lance Hammer)
Things have been mysteriously quiet surrounding this since the Berlin premiere, but sounds appealing enough.

Red Rocks (Bruno Dumont)
Certainly one of the most notable Fortnight films, and Lim mentioned it approvingly alongside the Alonso.

Moderate Possibility

The Beloved (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
Didn’t see anyone really dislike this despite its similarities to Sentimental Value, which might be a good sign.

Clarissa (Arie & Chuko Esiri)
Lim mentioned this as one of his Fortnight highlights.

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)
Heavily dependent on when A24 decides to release this, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t really to Lim’s taste.

Everytime (Sandra Wollner)
The Prix un certain regard winner hasn’t made it since Unclenching the Fists in 2021, yet this sounds mysterious in the best way.

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)
Quite clearly the breakout film of Cannes; might go to ND/NF, but I think the level of passion pushes it towards NYFF.

Hope (Na Hong-jin)
Not getting any award from Park Chan-wook’s jury hurts its chances, but it definitely has a cadre of admirers.

I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)
Barnard hasn’t made it to NYFF before, but this was well-received.

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)
Sundance usually has one or two films at NYFF, and this was definitely the most prominent to premiere there apart from the Greaves.

The Loneliest Man in Town (Tizza Covi & Rainer Frimmel)
One of the best received Berlin competition titles among those who watched it.

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
Zvyagintsev has never been at NYFF, though it was one of only two 4-stars Justin Chang gave in the Competition.

Nagi Notes (Fukada Koji)
Definitely probable that A Girl Missing‘s selection was a one-off, but a Cannes berth does still hold more weight than Venice after all this time.

La perra (Dominga Sotomayor)
Nobody seemed especially aware of Swim to Me before it dropped unceremoniously on Netflix, and Lim had it as one of his Fortnight standouts.

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Predicting more Berlin competition titles than I probably should, but Hüller is worth betting on.

Thanks for Coming (Alain Cavalier)
Cavalier only appeared in the Main Slate once with Thérèse back in 1986(!), one among many notable Fortnight films.

Currents

Eden (James Benning)
Benning mentioned that he just finished this film, and I doubt he’ll wait until next year to premiere it, so this would be a good world premiere spot and/or second stop after Wavelengths.

Foreign Travel (Ted Fendt)
Fendt.

London (Sebastian Brameshuber)
One of the best-received films at Berlin.

Spotlight

The History of Concrete (John Wilson)
Wouldn’t be shocked if this was in Main Slate, though I’m also not sure about release plans.

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